Most things in life with great rewards come with risk. The key to big success is to make smart bets. The parameters of this betting model are:

1. Potential reward
2. Probability of success
3. Cost of the bet

Potential reward times probability of success is the expected value of the bet. If the expected value is greater than the cost of the bet, then it is a good bet.

For financial investments, this calculation is easy to understand. In real life, it can get a bit more tricky. For example, the amount of time it takes to see a bet through matters. The value of rewards can also be unclear. For some, it is easily quantifiable as money, but for others, it could be happiness, fulfillment, or impact. It is up to you to figure out what you value.

Asymmetric upsides is when the potential for something is much higher than the risk. I think there is a blindspot here because most people are risk averse and afraid of failure. I don't think this is rational. If the upsides for bets are large, it only takes one successful bet to pay for all the failed ones. So the risk is fine if you can play the game several times.

I believe that doing lots of weird things with asymmetric upsides will pay off over time.